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How do I read a fixture analysis output?

A fixture analysis builds from the data up: the evidence first, the conclusion at the end. A typical output runs through the fixture details, the market tables, the most likely scorelines, the xG picture, the recent-form data, the Sanity Score, and then the Recommendation block and Verdict at the bottom.

The market tables are the core. For each outcome you see the bookmaker odds, the probability those odds imply, the model’s probability, the model’s fair odds (the minimum price you would take and still be getting value), and the EV%, the gap between the two prices. Positive EV% means the bookmaker is paying more than the fair price, and each line is marked as value or no value.

The supporting evidence sits alongside: the Poisson scoreline distribution (the most probable final scores), the xG summary for the full match and each half, and goal-frequency trends and scoring-time clusters from the last 10 matches. This is the data the probabilities were built from, shown so you can see what drove the numbers.

The checks come next: the Sanity table with its four component scores, plus any validation checks the analysis ran, such as a favourite-suppression check on match-odds markets. A recommendation only appears when the checks pass.

The Recommendation block and Verdict close the output: the suggested bet, the price, the EV%, a suggested stake size, and where relevant an entry trigger (back at kickoff, or a condition to wait for). It is not an instruction to bet; whether you act, and at what stake, stays with you. Save Bet on the bet card adds a selection to your +EV Bet Tracker.

A practical reading order: start at the Verdict, then read upward to check that the Sanity components, the size of the EV, and any flags support it. The two indicators most users look for together are Sanity 7+ and +EV 5%+.

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